Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
July 4, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Before Michael Bay fanboys, both of you, write to complain, I know that there are caveats. The Amazing Spider-Man is an IMAX as well as a 3D release while Transformers was neither. Heads up, Transformers earned $8.8 million in Monday sneaks while the latest Spidey movie managed $7.5 million. Then again, Transformers was released prior to midnight with some showings as early as 7 p.m.; ergo, it had a fuller night of revenue opportunity and its Monday box office was reported accordingly.
This also means that the actual Monday/Tuesday box office total for Transformers was $36.7 million, which bests The Amazing Spider-Man’s $35 million. If we compare Tuesday numbers alone, the score is $27.9 million for Transformers to $27.5 million for The Amazing Spider-Man, an effective draw. I guess what I am saying to Spider-Man and Transformers fanboys is: settle down, nerds. You’re both ugly and dateless.
All virginity jokes aside, the IMAX aspect of The Amazing Spider-Man’s debut is a big factor, as it managed a full $4 million of ticket revenue through the special exhibitions. These play dates as well as the 3D ones are going to carry the Sony title to a very solid week of revenue. How solid is up for speculation.
Transformers was released against the backdrop of the same holiday calendar configuration in 2007. The best Transformers movie to date (which is a lot like being the most responsible of The Three Stooges) earned a factor of 4.24 more over the rest of the holiday week. It had a grand total of $155.4 million during this timeframe. A similar performance from The Amazing Spider-Man would mean a total of just under $150 million this week. This presumes that Spidey isn’t frontloaded, which remains to be seen.
The important aspect of the Transformers performance is that it managed $29.1 million on the 4th of July. We at BOP have chronicled the impact of July 4th as a negative box office holiday on the weekends. Because this is a day of family get-togethers in America, movie theaters are less populated than they would be on, say, Christmas or Thanksgiving. The caveat to this is when July 4th occurs on a weekday. In such instances, people are on vacation and this leads to a rise in box office for all titles in release from their expected weekday results.
To wit, every title in the top 10 in 2007 increased from Tuesday, ordinarily the best box office weekday, to Wednesday. The same is true for most of the titles from this July 4th calendar configuration in 2001. So, if you read that July 4th is not a great box office holiday, there is some accuracy in the statement, but it is untrue for this particular year. If The Amazing Spider-Man fails to meet expectations with regards to today’s box office, the reason is not holiday related.
I hope that my American friends have a lovely day of 4th of July cookouts and fireworks. And I hope that my non-American readers have a lovely…Wednesday.