Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
July 13, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The Amazing Spider-Man should earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $10.6 million on Friday and is positioned for a $35 million weekend overall. If its Friday/weekend numbers are significantly different from this, you will know whether the movie is holding better/fading worse than projected. Its weekdays have been odd this week in that Monday and Wednesday were disappointing while Tuesday and Thursday were strong. So, its fate hangs in the balance over the next three days.
As mentioned yesterday, the rest of the top ten is universally down albeit modest amounts. 8 out of the top 10 included the afore-mentioned Spider-Man suffered single digit declines. The “worst” of these is Savages, which fell a whopping 8%. That’s not exactly massive change. Meanwhile, the “best” holdover is Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Reunion, which increased 3%. As you can see, movies generally earned on Thursday what they had previously made on Tuesday.
There were a couple of milestones along the way. The latest Madea movie finished in eighth place with $990,707, giving it a running total of $50,027,694. And the big story is that Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted became the fourth film of the year to surpass $200 million domestically. The DreamWorks Animation title earned $1,034,877 yesterday, bringing its grand total to $200,231,722 after 35 days in theaters.
I mentioned in Wednesday’s column that I would compare Madagascar 3 to some other DreamWorks Animation titles as points of comparison. First and foremost, it is now the most popular Madagascar title to date, a dazzling achievement for the third film in the franchise. As of yesterday, it also surpassed Monsters vs. Aliens to become the third best-selling title from the studio that didn’t feature Shrek.
The only two titles currently ahead of it are How to Train Your Dragon, my favorite movie of 2010, and Kung Fu Panda. After 35 days in release, How to Train Your Dragon’s running total was $181,559,461. Given that it finished with $217.6 million, it’s safe to say that Madagascar 3 will surpass it. You will see in a moment that this is not guaranteed, though.
Kung Fu Panda is a more interesting discussion in terms of daily totals. After 35 days, Madagascar 3 is slightly ahead as Kung Fu Panda had earned $197,742,899 in the same time frame. Oddly, Kung Fu Panda earned slightly less than How to Train Your Dragon overall, ending its run with $215.4 million. What is noteworthy is that Kung Fu Panda’s daily total on its 35th day was $1,062,605, almost identical to Madagascar 3’s 34th day total of $1,067,702 but slightly higher than its 35th day revenue of $1,034,877.
In other words, Madagascar 3 could run out of steam quickly from here. A lot depends on whether its weekend total is in the $4.5 - $5.0 million range or it fades a bit. Madagascar 3 is losing 576 exhibitions this weekend, which is a key consideration here.
Combined box office for the top ten yesterday was $20.2 million. This represents a slight 4% drop from Wednesday’s $21.1 million. Ice Age: Continental Drift alone should approach Thursday’s combined top ten today. And The Dark Knight Rises should be earning this type of revenue on weekdays. The next few weeks are going to be fun.