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I recognize that there is an obvious counterpoint to the above. Yes, Rise of the Guardians is a holiday-themed feature. As such, it could benefit from seasonal interest. This is why I included Wreck-It Ralph in the discussion as well. The charming Disney title debuted during the first week of November. By any reasonable standard, it should be reaching the end of its box office run. After all, films are expected to depreciate, right?

Wreck-It Ralph earned $1.36 million during its first set of December weekdays. A realistic expectation would be for the movie to decline 40% week to week, which would mean $820,000 two weeks ago then $490,000 last week. Instead, its box office totals were $1.10 million for the second set of December weekdays followed by $1.20 million last week. Yes, it increased $100,000 despite the fact that Wreck-It Ralph lost almost 500 venues.

Here is the most amazing statistic of all. On Monday, December 3rd, Wreck-It Ralph earned $308,767 from 3,087 play dates. Last Thursday, December 20th, everyone’s favorite 8-bit villain turned hero garnered $354,174 from 1,863 play dates. The same movie earned roughly 15% more in 1,225 fewer exhibitions. The per-location average for Wreck-It Ralph was $100 on December 3rd; it was $190 on December 20th. Yes, that is 90% improvement in an industry that ordinarily expects films to decline.

This is the Holiday Bump demonstrated in a single example. Pointedly, the skew is even larger with Rise of the Guardians. That movie earned $565,496 on December 3rd then grew to $858,445 on December 20th. During this timeframe, the film lost 285 play dates yet its revenue increased 52%. That’s mathematically inexplicable at any other time of the year other than the end of December.

And here is the most amazing aspect of the Twelve Days of Box Office phenomenon. Rise of the Guardians and Wreck-It Ralph will maintain this performance until the end of the year despite the fact that they will once again cede theaters to new releases tomorrow. They should at least match and feasibly could gain revenue from last week to this week. And these are titles that are less in demand. The behavior will be more dramatic with more popular titles.

Last year, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol earned $124.7 million from December 21st until January 2nd. It was the seventh largest domestic hit of 2011. A full 60% (!) of its final domestic take of $209.4 million occurred during this two week window. A movie can turn into a runaway money train overnight during the Twelve Days of Box Office.

I do not expect 2012 to feature such a success story. A key reason for this is that the calendar configuration is not as conducive to extended revenue as has been the cast in past years. With Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve both falling on Mondays, there are fewer additional potential vacation days for North American consumers. And as long time readers know by now, free time is the hidden ingredient in all box office inflation scenarios.

Beginning on Wednesday, we will examine exactly how and why the calendar configuration hurts the titles in release a bit more than usual. We will also examine the new Christmas releases and take a hard look at what’s in store for The Hobbit. There will be a column tomorrow as well, but it will be fairly basic as I know that everyone will be spending the holiday with friends and family…and many new toys. I hope you get all the presents you want.

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