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The BEST Transformers performance after the film was earning $2 million or less was 11% more box office from that moment forward. Transformers 4 should beat that by a bit but if we ballpark its performance under those parameters, it winds up in the range of $235 million. That is a roughly $117 million drop from Dark of the Moon. Were the box office numbers in China not so spectacular, we would be viewing this release as a franchise killer. That is the new math in box office. When a film dies this quickly domestically, how much benefit of the doubt do we give it for maxing out in a country where the corporation retains no more than 25% of its box office? Nobody has the answer to that yet. I am simply throwing it out there so that you understand the direction we are heading.

A movie we have not discussed in this forum finished in third place yesterday. Tammy grossed $1.6 million yesterday, a drop of only 42% from last Monday’s $2.8 million. This solid hold occurs on the heels of a 42% weekend fall. As I noted above, all of the weekend depreciation numbers are lower than normal due to the anti-holiday behavior of July 4th falling on a Friday. Still, Tammy is a critically loathed film with the type of Cinemascore that generally indicates a quick exit from theaters. Somehow, Tammy is demonstrating solid legs. Due to its $20 million budget, it is also a blockbuster, having already earned $58.6 million domestically. I posit that there is a simple explanation for this. This sort of funny fat person falling down a lot concept features a rare level of truth in advertising for Hollywood. Anyone who buys a ticket knows exactly what they are getting. I also believe that Age of Extinction qualifies under the same umbrella. So, the Chinese will figure out that these movies are garbage in another three films or so.

Rounding out the top five are the inseparable sequel duo, 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2. They have finished on top of one another every weekday in July (weekends include Fridays with regards to box office, pedants). Due to this close competition, it should not be surprising to realize that the last time I wrote this column, the two films were separated by $18.2 million. The gap after yesterday is $19.5 million.

Yesterday, the buddy cop flick earned just under a million while the animated title earned just over a million. The difference between the two films on Monday was $16,661. The 21 Jump Street sequel seems to have the tiniest bit more spring left in its step despite yesterday’s proceedings, though. No matter what happens next, both films are winners for their respective studios. The difference is that 22 Jump Street is a bona fide blockbuster while How to Train Your Dragon 2 continues to be a head scratcher. Most analysts feel like 22 Jump Street’s box office is a best case scenario result while the Dragon sequel is worst case scenario. And 32 days later, there is still no good explanation as to why for the latter outcome.

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