Pirates Out of Fox’s League

By Kim Hollis

July 12, 2003

Talk about your yo ho ho and a bottle of rum!

The ayes have it, Captain. After several weeks where big-name titles performed below expectations, Pirates of the Caribbean emerges as a legitimate success story. Meanwhile, The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen also performed a bit stronger than many analysts’ predictions, though in the end it’s unlikely to leave any sort of lasting impression.

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Going into the weekend with $24 million after a Wednesday debut, Pirates of the Caribbean made $15.2 million on Friday. Because recent box office trending has been defying statistical box office data again and again this summer, it’s somewhat difficult to predict exactly where the Pirates are headed from here. The good news for Disney is that the film has phenomenal word-of-mouth already, both from critics and fans, and looks to be the best possibility for a summer legs film so far this year (Finding Nemo and The Italian Job technically being outside of Summer). The best recent comparison films look to be George of the Jungle, which had a Friday-to-Sunday multiplier of 3.45, and The Mask of Zorro, which wound up with a 3.03 multiplier over its Friday-to-Sunday. Since neither of these films is really current enough to account for the extreme front-loading factor that marks the present trend, I’m really going with gut instinct on this one to say that Pirates of the Caribbean should have a Friday-to-Sunday multiplier of 3.2, which would give it a very solid $48.5 million for the three-day weekend, and $72 million after only five days of release.

The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen

Thanks to Sean Connery fans and comic book geeks, LXG managed to take in $8.8 million on Friday. In spite of of month or year of release, movies based on comic books are very consistent with regards to frontloading and Friday-to-Sunday multiplier numbers. With the lone exception of Spider-Man, these films wind up with a Friday-to-Sunday increase that falls between 2.5 and 2.75. The newest example and probably the most appropriate analog based on comparable negative word-of-mouth is The Hulk, which could only muster a 2.5 Friday-to-Sunday multiplier a month ago. Because Connery also appeals to a slightly older demographic, I’m going to bump that up just a bit to 2.6, a number that would give The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen a debut weekend of $22.8 million before it suffers some quick drop-offs and fades away.

Notable Holdovers

Because last Friday was the Independence Day holiday in the U.S., it's harder than usual to directly correlate Friday-to-Friday depreciation. July 4th saw lower than normal box office because it's a holiday with plenty of outdoor activities. That's why internal multipliers were universally high across the board for last weekend. In comparing this Friday's numbers with last Friday's, we have to factor in this effect. As a result, Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines will be the closest to normal of all the films since it was the least affected last weekend. With a total yesterday of $6.1 million, the movie dropped 53.6% from last Friday despite generally positive word-of-mouth. Even so, the movie will cross the $100 million mark after Saturday and should challenge LXG for the number two spot on the weekend chart.

Legally Blonde 2: Red, White & Blonde exhibited a substantially better-than-the-first-film Friday-to-Friday drop of 28.3% as audiences saw the film to the tune of $4.4 million yesterday (the first film dropped 53% from its debut Friday). Don’t get that excited, though. The movie suffered a larger-than-normal drop last Friday from its previous two days because the holiday affects this particular demographic much more strongly than others. Its overall weekend drop will reflect that fact as Saturday and Sunday numbers will even things out in comparison to last weekend’s numbers overall and be closer to a 38% drop. Nonetheless, compared to the first film’s second weekend, this number bodes very well for the sequel despite questionable reviews and audience appreciation. It ought to wrap up the weekend with $13.6 million, which is definitely positive news after a opening weekend that started below expectations.

Faring the best of all returning holdovers by far was Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas, which made $1.5 million on Friday for a drop of only 13.9% from one week ago. It’s important to note that because Sinbad had low numbers in the first place, it is much easier for the movie to come back with smaller amounts of depreciation than a movie that opened big. Additionally, like Legally Blonde 2, Sinbad is a film whose demographic tends to stay away from theaters on holidays such as Independence Day due to numerous family activities outdoors. It looks to finish the weekend with an additional $5 million, but that number won’t do anything to soften the blow DreamWorks is receiving financially from the performance of this one.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross (M$)
1
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
48.5
2
The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen
22.8
3
Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
21.3
4
Legally Blonde 2: Red, White & Blonde
13.6
5
Finding Nemo
8.1
6
Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle
6.7
7
28 Days Later
5.4
8
Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas
5.2
9
The Hulk
4.1
10
The Italian Job
3.1