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Friday Numbers AnalysisBy Kim HollisDecember 20, 2003
The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King continues its march toward the title of biggest December open ever this weekend; meanwhile, Sony and Revolution Studios are counting on Julia Roberts and a cast of today’s hottest young actresses to overcome middling reviews to help propel Mona Lisa Smile into a holiday box office hit.
The Lord of the Rings: Return of the KingThe final chapter in the vaunted hobbit trilogy attracted movie-goers to the tune of $22.4 million on Friday. That’s a 32% increase over the film’s Thursday take of $17.0 million and a 17% increase over The Two Towers’ Friday take of $19.2 million last year. After Fellowship of the Ring tallied a 3.32 Friday-to-Sunday multiplier in 2001, The Two Towers saw a slight decline to a 3.22. Since each film is likely to encounter added frontloading as the trilogy progresses, that trend is only natural and should continue this weekend for Return of the King. Give it a 3.17 multiplier for Friday-to-Sunday and its three-day number should wind up at around $71 million. Add that to the money already in the bank and a total of $122.5 million will easily give RotK the December box office title and provide it a strong start in its quest to overtake Finding Nemo as number one film of the year.
Mona Lisa SmileA film that many critics have derided as “a female version of Dead Poet’s Society,” Mona Lisa Smile started its probably very long-term box office run with a Friday take of $4.3 million. In years past, similar chick-flicks have managed to come up very respectable Friday-to-Sunday multipliers, but more importantly, their staying power at the box office has been exemplary. As a frame of reference, Two Weeks Notice (3.09 Friday-to-Sunday multiplier, 6.48 opening-to-total box office multiplier), Stepmom (3.23 Friday-to-Sunday multiplier, 4.76 opening-to-total box office multiplier), Maid in Manhattan (2.84 Friday-to-Sunday multiplier, 5.02 opening-to-total box office multiplier), Miss Congeniality (3.38 Friday-to-Sunday multiplier, 7.71 opening-to-total box office multiplier) and You’ve Got Mail (3.06 Friday-to-Sunday multiplier, 6.28 opening-to-total box office multiplier) all had this sort of movement. Mona Lisa Smile should follow a similar trajectory, so give it a 3.1 Friday-to-Sunday multiplier for an estimated weekend total of $13.3 million.
Notable HoldoversAfter receiving a couple of Golden Globe nominations for its stars Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give showed only so-so staying power as its Friday box office total of $3.3 million dropped 38% from last week. The weekend in general should be a bit kinder, as a 30% decline would give Something’s Gotta Give $11.2 million going into the holidays.Despite generally positive reviews and word-of-mouth, the Farrelly Brothers’ Stuck on You plunges a rather disturbing 53% to a slight Friday total of $1.6 million. Allowing for a rather optimistic 45% drop for the entire weekend, its total should wind up at $4.9 million. The unnecessary Can’t Buy Me Love remake Love Don’t Cost a Thing saw a Friday-to-Friday drop of 48%. After a $1.1 million Friday, it should have a three-day total this weekend of $3.7 million. Elf shows that it is indeed the season to be jolly as it dropped a mere 14% from last Friday. It will add $5.4 million to the Christmas coffers before finally falling well below radar in the days after the holidays. It also gives New Line the honor of having the two biggest films of the holiday season along with Return of the King. It looks like it’s about time to stick a fork in Academy Award hopeful The Last Samurai, though. After dropping pretty substantially last weekend, it has taken a turn for the ugly by falling 54% from last Friday. Look for it to barely eke out a $7 million take for Friday-to-Sunday, leaving it to hope for better days on DVD.
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